Bayesian Decision Theory Can Guide Legal Factfinding

Autores/as

  • Mario Günther LMU Munich

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Resumen

I argue that Bayesian decision theory can guide legal factfinding. I do so by offering an account of legal proof on which judges should minimize expected justice costs. My account entails a judge’s credence threshold for finding guilty and his prior credence of guilt. Hence, it can guide a judge in his decision based on the lawful evidence presented at trial—unlike the Bayesian model Mackor presents.

Palabras clave

Legal Proof, Bayesianism, Decision Theory, Retributive Justice, Undeserved Punishment, Philosophy of Law

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Citas

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.33115/udg_bib/qf.i11.23280

Publicado

26-06-2026

Cómo citar

Günther, M. (2026). Bayesian Decision Theory Can Guide Legal Factfinding. Quaestio Facti. Revista Internacional Sobre Razonamiento Probatorio, (11). https://doi.org/10.33115/udg_bib/qf.i11.23280